How It Works
Everything you need to know to start trading on Soko Predict.
What is Soko Predict?
Soko Predict is a prediction market platform where you trade on the outcomes of real-world events — from football matches and elections to economic indicators and crypto prices. Instead of betting, you buy and sell shares that represent your view on whether something will happen.
How Trading Works
Step 1: Pick a Market
Browse markets on topics you know about. Each market asks a yes-or-no question, like "Will Kenya beat Tanzania in the AFCON qualifier?"
Step 2: Buy Shares
If you think the answer is yes, buy YES shares. If you think it's no, buy NO shares. The price reflects the current probability — a YES price of 70% means the market thinks there's a 70% chance it happens.
Step 3: Wait or Trade
You can hold your shares until the market resolves, or sell them at any time if the price moves in your favor. You don't have to wait for the final outcome to make money.
Step 4: Get Paid
When the event happens and the market resolves, winning shares pay out KES 10 each. Losing shares pay KES 0. If you bought YES at KES 3 and it resolves YES, you earn KES 7 profit per share.
How Prices Work
Prices on Soko Predict are set automatically by a market maker algorithm. The price moves based on supply and demand:
- →When more people buy YES, the YES price goes up and the NO price goes down
- →When more people buy NO, the NO price goes up and the YES price goes down
- →YES price + NO price always equals approximately 100%
Think of the price as a probability. A YES price of 75% means the market collectively believes there's a 75% chance the event will happen. If you disagree, that's your trading opportunity.
How You Make Money
There are two ways to profit:
1. Hold to Resolution
Buy shares and hold them until the market resolves. If your outcome wins, each share pays KES 10.
Example: You buy 100 YES shares when YES is priced at 30% (costs ~KES 300 + fees)
The event happens → market resolves YES
Your 100 shares pay out: 100 × KES 10 = KES 1,000
Your profit: KES 1,000 - KES 300 = KES 700
2. Trade the Price Movement
Buy shares when the price is low and sell them when it rises — without waiting for the market to resolve.
Example: You buy YES shares at 40%
News breaks that makes the event more likely → YES rises to 75%
You sell your shares at 75% and pocket the difference
The Math Behind Payouts
Understanding the numbers helps you make smarter trades. Here's exactly how payouts are calculated:
Share Pricing
Each share has a base value of KES 10.
The price you pay per share depends on the current market probability.
At 50% probability, a share costs approximately KES 5. At 20%, approximately KES 2.
The lower the price when you buy, the higher your potential return.
Resolution Payout
When a market resolves:
Winning shares → KES 10 per share
Losing shares → KES 0
Worked Example
| Step | Amount |
|---|---|
| You invest | KES 500 |
| 2% platform fee deducted | - KES 10 |
| Net amount used for shares | KES 490 |
| YES price at time of purchase | 25% |
| Approximate shares received | ~196 shares |
| Market resolves YES — payout | 196 × KES 10 = KES 1,960 |
| Your profit | KES 1,460 (292% return) |
If You're Wrong
Using the same example: you invested KES 500 on YES at 25%.
The market resolves NO → your YES shares pay KES 0.
You lose your KES 500 investment. That's the maximum loss — never more than what you put in.
Selling Before Resolution
You don't have to wait. If you bought YES at 25% and the price rises to 60%, you can sell and lock in profit immediately.
The sell price is determined by the automated market maker. A 2% fee is deducted from the sell proceeds.
This lets you take profits without the risk of the final outcome going against you.
Fees
Soko Predict charges a 2% fee on every transaction (buys and sells). This fee is deducted automatically from your trade amount. There are no hidden charges. Deposits and withdrawals via M-Pesa may incur standard M-Pesa transaction fees.
Market Categories
Match results, league standings, player transfers, tournament outcomes
Elections, policy decisions, diplomatic events across Africa
Exchange rates, inflation, central bank decisions, economic indicators
Music awards, film releases, cultural events, social media milestones
Bitcoin price targets, altcoin events, DeFi milestones, regulatory decisions
Time Horizons
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the minimum trade?
The minimum trade amount is KES 10.
How do I deposit money?
Go to your Wallet page and deposit via M-Pesa. Enter your amount, confirm on your phone, and your balance is credited instantly.
How do I withdraw my earnings?
From your Wallet page, request a withdrawal to your M-Pesa number. Withdrawals are processed and sent directly to your M-Pesa account.
Can I lose more than I invest?
No. The maximum you can lose is the amount you spent buying shares. There are no margin calls or additional liabilities.
What happens if a market is cancelled?
If a market is voided (due to ambiguity or other reasons), all shares are refunded at their original purchase price.
How are markets resolved?
Each market has clear resolution criteria listed on its page. When the event occurs, our team resolves the market based on publicly available evidence. The resolution evidence is shared on the market page for transparency.
Is this gambling?
Prediction markets are opinion-based event outcome marketplaces, not gambling. Your success depends on your knowledge, research, and analysis of real-world events — not chance. Think of it as putting your knowledge to work.
What does "Flash" mean?
Flash markets are short-lived markets that resolve within minutes to hours. They're great for events happening right now, like live match outcomes.
What does "Contrarian" or "Expert" mean?
"Contrarian" markets are ones where the crowd consensus might be wrong — good opportunities for those who think differently. "Expert" markets require specialized knowledge in a particular field to trade well.
How old do I need to be?
You must be at least 18 years old to use Soko Predict.
Ready to start trading?
Put your knowledge to work. Create an account and make your first prediction.
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